by: Byron Filog Allatog
Unlike in the 19th century, billions of people are now exercising democratic political rights, but these experiences of democratic exercise are far from universal; the issue of such practices is a defining challenge of the 21st century as it is endangered by a rising power and its alliance of autocracies. As the rise of China has been rocking each of its neighboring front yards for the past decade, it is however renowned to most Chinese leaders that the end goal is not the establishment of communist ideology and communist regimes in the world, but rather to gain influence and power on the international scene. This is evident in China’s design of new world stability, creating parallel institutions of autocracy and challenging the U.S.-led democratic world order. However, China’s ambition for new world order could lead to a war with the U.S. as tensions in the South China Sea and Taiwan lately are evident flashpoints. Without a middle power to balance this situation in the Asia and Pacific, the sail of both ships could lead to a tremulous shoal: a Thucydides’ Trap historical experience that both will endure. There is a need for a middle power to fire its foreign power policy, economic and military power, and cultural influence to placate these tensions caused by hegemony rivals that rescind democracy in favor of autocracy and the potential of war. This puts Australia on the scene as it has its ASEAN and Pacific neighbors with diverse markets, economic development, and a culture of 600 million people: a region for democracy sausage’s seamless integration.
Generation Z (social media generation) has created and popularized democracy sausage, a symbol of consensus in Australia relating to its humble, egalitarian, no-fuss meat which recapitulates the exercise of the rule of the majority in the country’s electoral system. Australia is a democratic country having “you and me- the decision makers” as the hallmark of its right to vote and consensus system, and a country with benchmarks of robust, flexible, realistic, and inclusive democratic institutions. These standards made Australia an excellent model of good governance for its citizens that created a diverse yet cohesive society ― its bedrock of strength, unity, and success of the country’s democracy and national security. Also, the power found in Australian foreign policy, that is, working with allies and coalition partners, is the best option strategy to influence and integrate back the rising superpower into the rules-based global order.
Australia is the forerunner of democracy and the most qualified standard bearer for democracy and rule of law in the Asian and Pacific regions. It cannot remain in neutral diplomacy but rather can employ its statecraft with the US-China hegemonic rivalry in the Asia-Pacific. Australia, with its foreign policy power, can lead the other Asian and Pacific countries to respond to this reign of competition and defuse tensions that could lead to war. Alliances and coalitions are the foundational keys to this rising power challenge, and Australia has the credibility in the region to rally ASEAN and Pacific countries to respond to disputes and resolved them peacefully with international laws. Relatedly, US President Joe Biden touted that alliances are America’s greatest assets, and leading with diplomacy means standing shoulder-to-shoulder with key allies and partners. Australia needs to flex back its power in foreign policy pathways of bargaining, persuasion, and attraction to maximize its power of influence to wield the support of all ASEAN and Pacific countries against the coercive power stance of China. To expand its leadership, Australia needs to pivot and flex this foreign policy power to respond to ASEAN’s call of “needs more than words” to fire the ball rolling. On the other hand, Australia as a member of the Quad and AUKUS group of liberal countries can rely on this as its foundation of support to best steer the direction of the Asia and Pacific neighbors to a free and open Indo-Pacific and further enhance defense and military joint capabilities and interoperability in upholding the international rules-based order; Quad and AUKUS’s cooperation and collaboration, the democratic strength.
Beyond foreign policy, economic and military power are support arsenal to collaboratively influence and ally all ASEAN countries and Pacific neighbors to make strategic choices that will shape the contours of China’s ambition causing this rivalry. Lowy Institute has shaped power as the capacity of a state to change or influence the behavior of other states and the course of international events, and these measures of power were defined in the Asia Power Index 2021 (API). A country’s comprehensive power is influenced by the two most thematic measures of power: economic and military capability. The central strengths of economic capability are its GDP, international leverage, and technology while the military capability includes defense spending, armed forces, weapons and platform, and Asian military posture. API puts Australia as a middle power alongside Japan, South Korea, and Indonesia. Australia ranks 6th with a comprehensive power at 30.8, Japan ranks 3rd at 38.7 with the US and China taking the 1st and 2nd places, respectively. Defining a clear leader to supplement the foreign policy approach in charging ASEAN and Pacific countries can be referenced from this API.
For economic capability, Australia is at 9th place and scored 12.9 while Japan is at 3rd with 31.9 while China and the US are at 1st and 2nd place with 91.2 and 90.7, respectively. Meanwhile, Australia is in 8th place with a score of 25.6, Japan in 7th place with a score of 26.2, and the US and China are in 1st and 2nd place with 91.7 and 66.8, respectively for military capability. By numbers, Japan scored better and outranked Australia in terms of overall comprehensive power and its specific economic and military capabilities. With these, both their strengths can complement a wielding of influence towards ASEAN and Pacific neighbors to craft long-term actions on flashpoints or gray zones (the South China Sea and Taiwan) like increasing military sales and altering military force posture to the affected countries. These actions can effectively counter the ongoing Gray Zone campaigns employed by China in setting the environment and tempo for future military operations, while the actions of Australia together with Japan are indirectly demonstrating a resolve. Nevertheless, Australia is the best option to rally the ASEAN and its Pacific neighbors in defining a collective tactical advantage against the offshoot of this rivalry considering that Australia performs best in the defense networks and Asian military posture as detailed in the API. It has good defense networks displayed in the regional alliance network, next to the US, and the second highest number of joint military training with allies next to the US. Besides networks, it can deploy its military forces to any ASEAN country in times of conflict, having been ranked 6th coming from the specific region alongside the leading military powers US, China, India, and Russia.
Moreover, Australia for the past decade is a preferred choice for the migration of ASEAN people, and it prides itself as a migration country and the most successful multicultural society in the world. Strength in diversity is the model by which Australia best leads the ASEAN and Pacific neighbors. It has the credibility to lead countries of different cultures as it has shown incredible success in how its Australians defined itself as a nation by a shared commitment to political values; democracy; freedom; and the rule of law, and not on the face look; skin color; faith; sex preference; and race. Since 1945, more than 7.5 million people across the globe settled in Australia. Interestingly, Lowy Institute recorded a total of 1.062 million people from ASEAN countries who advanced and integrated their life in Australia. From this point of view, Australia can be seen as an influencer on its ASEAN and Pacific regions considering that its model of migration is a cultural influence that can shape the opinions and behaviors of neighboring countries through cultural appeal and interaction.
Lastly, Australia can best serve as a leader of democracy in the ASEAN and Pacific neighborhoods as it can lead these countries based on the shared commitment to shared fundamental values and principles in upholding peace and development across the Asia and Pacific region based on respect and diversity. Its existing foreign policy is a power to which the country can lead because it exemplifies more the relational pathways of bargaining, persuasion, and attraction and not coercion to gain allies and partners. Likewise, the economic and military capabilities support the former as it displays power to influence in sharing resources and military might. Meanwhile, its migration model best characterizes that indeed Australia can lead nations of diverse cultures as it answered the walk the talk adage as a migration country.
From a perspective of a Filipino who could feel the pressure of China’s coercion around the Pacific region and nearby Southeast Asian territories, I could see that Australia is a strong country that can lead ASEAN and Pacific neighbors based on international diplomacy, economic and military capacities, and strength in diversity based on the democracy sausage. The 2017 Australian Foreign Policy White Paper which covered key sources of power as discussed in this paper needs a recalibration to set clear how it sees and shapes the world, a new guiding strategy to be pursued under a new administration while leading its ASEAN and Pacific neighbors amidst China’s rise.
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The views expressed in this article are those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect the position of the Philippine National Police, the Armed Forces of the Philippines, or the Philippine Government.
CSOP101 is a professional learning site for community policing advocates, practitioners, and supporters in changing the policing landscape. It is likewise an issue-based, related to or addressing nation-building. The views expressed within individual blog posts (police blog and academic) are those of the author and do not reflect any official position or that of the author’s employers. Any concerns regarding this blog post or resources should be directed in the first instance to byron.allatog012@gmail.com.
